Portfolio Review

Merry Christmas to everyone! Being that this was a holiday shortened week lets just do a quick Portfolio recap. We had two changes with this week's trading, we are exiting GILD and entering TWX.  We also have some more trailing stop levels to raise.

Weekly bars

-Exiting Gilead Sciences (GILD)

GILD gapped through support to open the week Monday morning. Competitor Abbvie had their Hepatitis C drug approved by the FDA and signed a contract with Express Scripts to be their supplier to the public. This news hit Gilead and the biotech space hard and has signaled our exit.

We were still able to walk out of this with a solid gain; we entered the stock back in July around $85, so we still captured a 10% gain. Sure it could have been more but there is no way to know when a trend will end. We ride them until they invalidate, GILD broke our $100 support level and thats all we need to know.

The stock has a confirmed Head/Shoulder Top in motion with initial targets down to around $80. However being that this seemed to form a sort of "blow-off" type extension during spring and summer, the downside could be much more than the initial $80. Regardless of what this may or may not do going forward, it is time to transfer the risk to someone else.

+Entering Time Warner (TWX)

Since our previous exit, shares of TWX have rallied back near the highs. We now take our new entry back near those prior highs. This happens sometimes when following a trend; sometimes you sell the lows and buy the highs, thats just the nature of the business. However we continue to take new signals because we never know which one will be the next big move.

We have been watching TWX as the chart seems to be carving out a nice rounded base. This week's break above the swing high gives us our trigger. There is a solid support area between $77-80, so we will use the swing low at $77 as our initial stop.

Remember why we like this one so much:

TWX Monthly bars

I keep a close eye on stocks that begin to trade as TWX has been. Since the epic meltdown from 2000 the stock has been moving sideways in a decade long range. However since late 2013 the stock has been able to make new range highs and seems to be ready to trend higher from here. As always we manage risk first, but the potential upside reward greatly outweighs any downside risks at this point.

PCG

PCG continues its moon-shot and after holding the breakout level on the most recent consolidation, we can move our stops up to $48. I think it is reasonable to expect a consolidation/pullback soon, but as long as it can hold its breakout area I want to be in the stock.

 On top of the surprisingly immediate 10% pop we have seen, PCG also pays a 3.5% dividend in quarterly installments. This is a good one to own going forward.

IP

IP has been consolidating its recent surge very nicely. When you see trading action this tight after such a strong move higher, its a bullish development. A flag type consolidation is suppose to resume to the upside. Now that we have the 20 WMA above the recent breakout level it's safe to slide stops up to $49.90

Since we "expect" the consolidation to resolve higher, any breakdown will be seen as a negative development. But above $49.90 this appears to be set for higher highs.

SBUX

Current Stop @ 73.50
Potential next trail @ $79

DIS

Current Stop @ 88.50
Potential trail @ 91.25

NKE

Current Stop @ 87
Potential trail @ 90.70

BAC

Current Stop: 16.20

HAIN

Current Stop @ 104
Potential trail @ 109.50

PPG

Current Stop @ 204

GS

Current Stop @ 177
Potential trail @ 188

UPS

Current Stop @ 100
Potential trail @ 105.25

HON

Current Stop @ 94.80

UNH

Current Stop @ 88.25
Potential trail @ 95.25

BRKB

Current Stop @ 140.50

TLT

Current Stop @ 118
Potential trail @ 121

BMY

Current Stop @ 51.60
Potential trail @ 57.50


Performance since inception: July 1, 2014

Portfolio: +8.1%  currently with 79% capital invested
SP500: +5.8%  with 100% capital invested