Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Trading Goals for 2017

When setting goals for a new year it is most helpful to set attainable goals. It is important to be realistic of what we can reasonably control and what we cannot. For example a realistic trading goal for 2017 is "I want to place even more emphasis on identifying higher quality setups". An unrealistic goal for 2017 is "I want to make 30% this year". Maybe we will make 30% profit this year, but that is not exactly in our control, and if we fail to achieve our goal it would be seen as a disappointment. We have no control over what the market may or may not do in the new year. What we do have control over is how we will respond to its signals along the way. I can't control the number of opportunities that will present themselves, but I can control the quality of setups I choose to take. That is a realistic market goal

My Trading Goals for 2017:

-Focus on finding value setups during normal sector rotations

This is something I try to do anyways but also feel I can improve my patience and focus to exploit the best risk/reward scenarios even more efficiently. What I want to look for are stocks that have Monthly uptrends (the price is trading at or above its rising 20 Month SMA), but have pulled back for multiple months to fill the "air" between price and the moving average.

Most of these moves will appear to be from weak or lagging groups, the financial media and shorter-term traders will be bearish, yet the stock will simply be undergoing a very normal rotation back to its long-term trend average. This is where we want to be hunting.

-Focus on using multiple timeframe analysis to really drill down into a potential blooming trend

I generally look at multiple timeframes when following a stock. But in the past I have been more hesitant to really begin to build a position based on these more speculative short-term setups. In 2017 I want to utilize the shorter-term charts more to kick-off new positions.

How this would look for example would be when I find a stock with "value" (see above) on the Monthly chart within an uptrend, I will then look to the Weekly chart for any possible bull-flag consolidation or inside bar. Then move down into the Daily/Hourly charts for the most specific turn in the action. I may be looking for a gap reversal or a very large candle that rejects lower prices and ignites a fast turn in the direction of the long-term trend. I will try to "get a piece" of the position on any notable reversal and then look to build that position with a follow-up buy or two as the higher timeframes begin to confirm the setup with their own reversal signals.

If we can accumulate these Monthly pattern turns as they emerge on the shorter timeframes and then add to the position once the Weekly/Monthly resume the prior trends, there will be a lot of money to be made with strong risk/rewards.

-Stick to my process of cutting losing trades fast and keeping risk/reward in my favor

This goal is all about my discipline to stick to my plan, don't hold and hope with losing trades, and seek the strongest risk/reward trades as possible. Following this goal is the most important part of my potential success in the new year.

We traders are nothing without our process and discipline. We need to be able to ignore noise suggesting that we alter our strategies in the face of volatility, and we need to listen to the market as best we can because the market is ultimately what pays us. Our opinions, research, news flow, macro-headlines do nothing for our bottom line. We can have all the opinions in the world, can research a stock for days and days, but if the market doesn't go along with our plans we will lose money. Its that simple.

Those are my trading goals for 2017. I hope you can create attainable goals that focus on your own process as a trader. The purpose of this exercise is to recognize your inherent faults and where your process could use improvement. None of us have all the answers, we all have plenty to learn. But only by attempting to make yourself a better participant can you have any hope of achieving long-term success.  






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