Quick and dirty Portfolio review this weekend, I'm headed out to the coast for a camping trip with the family. With all the noise and hysteria flying around about Greece, China and god knows what else, I will not add to the noise with banter of my own. You all know where I stand on opinion and predictions. A straight holdings review this week should suffice.
All that needs to matter to us right now is are our positions holding up or are they breaking down. If they are holding up, then nothing needs to be done. If they are breaking down then we will exit those losers.
I was stopped out of my 20% Short position on Tuesday's reversal attempt higher and close above 2,080 on the SPX. So I rotated those funds back into cash.
There where no new entries this week as my available funds were used for some short-term opportunities that have presented themselves. As usual, here is our Lg-Cap Portfolio, still intact after the recent volatility in the market. In fact we made new ATH's for our Portfolio equity this week while the SP500 remains 2.7% below its high.
UNH
UNH is continuing to see buyers at its 20 WMA. For more than a year every test of the 20 WMA has seen a jump in trading volume and always managed to close above. We have seen three recent tests of the line and each one was met with higher volume on the buy side. This is the pattern we will be watching going forward for any hints to future direction.
SBUX
Starbucks remains elevated and is still churning higher. Stops are in a good place, a pullback into the $50 area would still be normal price movement.
BMY
BMY finished the week at higher weekly closing highs and has seemingly shaken off the large selling pressure from May. Stops still remain at the bottom of the consolidation area.
DIS
Disney made new ATH's this week. This one just keeps going and with stops below the recent range support, we can continue to let this run comfortably.
AIG
AIG bucked the weakness seen by the broader Financial stocks this week. The stock closed higher and engulfed last week's entire trading range. This is bullish behavior. Stops remain at the breakout level as this stock can't even pullback to give us a new swing low. Let it work.
GILD
Gilead has come in a bit the last 3 weeks but is still in excellent position longer-term. The price action this week simply revisited the prior highs from last Fall. Stops below $104 give this plenty of room to continue to consolidate.
FB
Facebook is acting very well. Since breaking out two weeks ago, the stock has held tightly to the highs while the broader market has flopped around like a fish out of water. The Relative Strength in this name should not be ignored. The action suggests higher prices from here.
GS
GS is just going through an orderly profit taking period after a strong rally. No damage done to the trend as long as its above $198.
TWX
TWX pushed to a higher weekly close this week. The stock remains resilient amidst a very choppy and vulnerable market. I'm still very positive on this name above the recent consolidation lows.
HON
Honeywell is trying my patience and has effectively gone nowhere since our entry late last year. If stops do not trigger soon but performance continues to lag, I will be forced to reposition and look to something with more mojo. Price is currently sitting on our stop level and below a now declining 20 WMA.
WFC
WFC dug in where it needed to this week. With earnings on deck Tuesday morning the next move should be decided soon. Currently the stock is positioned nicely coming into earnings as its pulled back a bit from its high and resting on its 20 WMA. Typically Wells performs fairly poor on announcement days, but soon resumes its trend higher. We will see what next week brings. Stops at $54.05.
AAPL
Last but not least is AAPL. Everyone's favorite stock. Well it came within 3 cents of triggering exits for us this week, but managed to hold onto support with Friday's strong recovery. RS is sitting right on its 18-month uptrend support vs. SP500 and will make a move one way or the other soon. Keep an eye on this week's closing price, going forward that will be our stop.
Have a nice weekend!
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Hi Coddy, with FB making new highs today, are you planning to move up your stop for it? Thank you as always.
ReplyDeleteNot yet for this timeframe. We own FB for 3 separate timeframes in different accounts: Daily stops at 85.23 and 82.50. But for this longer-term holding, stops are still at the lowest close of the last 10-weeks and weekly swing low (78.50).
DeleteThe Daily stop strategies do not hold full positions through earnings, since this weekly timeframe account does I tend to give it more room to move around. I will say that the move today is positive and should it hold, we will be able to trail stops soon. The next likely location will be near the 82.50 level. But we will cross that bridge when we come to it.
Where the stop is placed is completely based on your timeframe. More aggressive accounts can use tighter levels while more passive accounts can widen them out to handle more short-term volatility.
Thank you Coddy, I really appreciate your answer, I am more on the longer term timeframe and was thinking when could be the right time to move the stops up. Thanks again.
ReplyDeleteThe easiest way to judge when a longer term stop should be trailed is to simply count back the last 10 weekly bars. The lowest close of those 10 bars can be your rough stop. So for FB we need to see how it handles earnings and then we should be able to trail stops in about 3-4 weeks or so to 82ish
DeleteThank you! I remember a few months ago when here in your blog you explained to me how to manage this large-cap stocks, and you mentioned that, I just need to apply more this rules. Thanks for all the knowledge you share, very valuable.
ReplyDelete