Saturday, March 14, 2015

Lg-Cap Review: Top Performers Lead

Markets remained volatile this week with the SP500 declining -1%. Notable relative strength was seen in Small Caps as the Russell 2000 posted a gain of  +1%.

We had no new entries in our Lg Cap portfolio. Due to the nature of this environment, my growth portfolios have been performing better and showing more potential new opportunities. There just isnt much within the SP100 that looks ready for good R/R. Banks are getting close like WFC and GS. But it is the Small and Mid Cap Regional bank space that looks most interesting.

Russell 2000 Small Caps vs SP500 Lg-Caps 

The media has all sorts of reasons "why" we are seeing a discrepancy between Large and Small Cap stocks here: a strong Dollar, speculation on rising interest rates, falling Energy prices, etc. While all of these are factors, its impossible to say when or if these conditions change. That is not our concern. What we need to focus on is how to navigate this environment and continue to profit in a volatile market. 

Despite this "changing" environment, our top performing holdings continue to show standout strength and managed to achieve gains this week.  

SBUX

DIS

UNH

BMY

This is why its so important to stick with winning positions. They tend to continue winning in the face of all the "fears" swirling around the financial media. Nobody knows when an uptrend will end, but by sticking with the best performing stocks, you give yourself the best possible chance of outperforming. 

We also saw many of our holdings begin to test key trend support this week as the markets remained under pressure. While all these remain above our stop levels, it will be important to see how they deal with their initial supports. 

BA
Boeing isn't anywhere near stops or any kind of meaningful support. For that reason its foolish to try to time when this trend will end. Just stand back, let it come in a bit and build some sort of consolidation. We need to let the market tell us where the buyers are instead of guesses or "feelings". 

That being said, we can trail stops up to just below our entry near $130. A break of that area would suggest the breakout is failing. It would also take out the 20 WMA and make new 50-Day lows.

Don't worry about giving back our measly 15% open gains here. Give it some room to see if it can become the winner that makes our year. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't...Who knows? Anyone that says they know is lying.

*I heard a little secret too...When Goldman downgrades a stock its not to sound smart if it comes down, its to buy a strong stock cheaper if traders sell it due to their commentary.

Stick with BA.

PPG
We are raising trailing stops to $219.80. A breakdown from there would suggest more caution ahead.

IP
Also raising trailing stops to the lowest close of the last 10+ weeks. 

HON

TWX

AAPL

CSCO

LMT

UNP

PCG

With the exception of UNP and PCG, all of our positions are in clear uptrends and ABOVE all key support levels for our time frame.

UNP and PCG are in the midst of solid pullbacks, -9% and -16% respectively from their all-time highs. Stops are nearing, I will be watching these closely for some new buying interest and stabilization.

Sometimes we give up gains as trend traders, but its because of this behavior of sticking with winners that we are also able to catch the most remarkable moves in the market. The is no free lunch. To achieve outsized winners you have to willing to sometimes watch open profits fade, its just the price we pay as big trend participants.

Thanks for reading. For weekly updates and new trade ideas, Follow on Twitter and Stocktwits @ZenTrends.







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