Boring old market, same tune over and over, new all-time highs, blah blah blah. This is the situation we are dealing with this year. Any and all pullbacks are shallow (1-6%) and each one has lead to the market setting a new record high. This is just classic bull market stuff, I'm not making this up. At this point, even nearly a 15% decline from current levels would still keep this market within its long-term, recovery uptrend. Its goes without saying, this is a market you should be invested in and still have plenty of downside cushion as a safety net should the highs not hold. I'm not advocating going all-in here if you have not yet participated, but you have to be taking nibbles at winning stocks.
In my short term accounts I have done some re-balancing this week. I took some profits in UNH this morning as it ripped 10% this week alone. I also took some gains out of HAIN (in short term accounts, long-term I am not acting here) after it has gained 15% this month. I sold out of my INTC holdings due to the intermediate support breaking after a weak quarterly report and transitioned those funds into one of my long time favorites, UNP, as it broke to new all-time highs. I opened a position in APA which is setting up for a nice risk/reward move; I feel APA could be a very nice longer term hold and value from current levels. I also added to my DDD position in short term accounts. I don't feel this is quite set up for longer term accounts just yet as the risk/reward is still a bit high on the weekly time frame. This short term position is a more aggressive trade and I don't feel it is appropriate for our time frame here just yet. But I will be watching for the longer term signal to generate so we can open a position for our blog portfolio.
When the market makes new highs it is often time to check out your holdings to make sure they are performing up to the high standards of a record market. Here is a weekly view of said "record market":
Just very nice action here. That rising 20 WMA has acted as strong support and the SP500 has rallied hard off of those levels. This has the look of a bull flag pattern; what we typically expect to see with a bull flag breakout is a quick surge above the prior high and then a throwback type trade back to the breakout level. Aggressive, short term traders take some profits on the initial breakout and more conservative traders setup new positions on the retest. The pattern is then expected to continue in the breakout direction after the throwback. That will be something to watch for in the coming weeks. The current invalidation point to this breakout will be a failure of the June low at 1,560. If that were to be the case, I would look for the 1,470-1,500 uptrend as support.
Lets take a look at some interesting charts from our list after this weeks action.
XLK (Technology)
After disappointing results from GOOG, INTC and MSFT this week, the Tech sector took it on the chin. Our RS rolled over from the prior low and has gotten our attention here. I was very close to closing our position today, but the price action still shows a steady uptrend and is above key support. We will be watching this with a close, skeptical eye. AAPL reports earnings this coming Tuesday and will either be the stick-save for Tech or the straw that broke the camel's back. I will keep you posted.
XLE (Energy)
Our newest position got off to a nice start with today's 1.39% gain and showed strong follow through of Thursday's breakout. We saw today's move come on increased volume and also have RS breaking out of a 5 month downtrend. All good things, and very good things to see as confirmation of strength in a new position.
XLF (Financials)
When the Financials go higher, the market goes higher. Its just one of those things. This is a longer look at the XLF from the 2009 crisis lows. There was a 4 year base setup after the monster crash and just since the end of last year, price has broken out of that base. This is huge for the market and a big reason as to why I have been a believer in this rally all year. Most of the big banks have reported quarterly earnings over the past 2 weeks and every since one has just hit it out of the park. There is still lots of upside to come. The reversal pattern in the base breakout projects an initial target near $23.40.
XLV (Healthcare)
Even when Healthcare broke down from its 6 month uptrend, Relative Strength never confirmed the breakdown. This is a reason why we follow strength so closely, it will often hint whether something is better under the surface than it may seem. Since the trend failure, price has consolidated orderly and now broken back to new highs. This is setup similarly to the SP500 with a bull flag type pattern. Looks to be moving higher from here.
XLU (Utilities)
Utilities could get interesting here soon. Price seems to have broken the down trend by taking out the prior high at about 38.50 and is now testing the underside of resistance from the April breakdown. We want to see a break above the resistance level here and also hope to see Relative Strength break above its horizontal trading range. Something to watch.
CMI (Cummins)
CMI is coiling up here, getting ready for a big move either above or below the range. For 6 months price has gone nowhere for Cummins, bouncing back and forth between 122.50 and 103. While price has been coasting, RS has been forming a triangle coiling pattern of its own with higher lows and lower highs. Think of a triangle pattern acting as a spring. As price moves closer the the apex, the trading range gets tighter and tighter until something gives. Whether its a strong earnings report or some other extraneous event, price gets so tight that it finally pops in the direction of the breakout. After trading in a narrow range for the last 6 months and a wider range for the last 2 1/2 years, something is about to happen here. The move is likely to be violent. We will have to watch and see which side wins before we act ourselves. I am a fan of CMI and would be very interested in the stock should it break out of its shackles and move to the upside.
ENB (Enbridge)
Enbridge looked to be breaking down as it was falling below its long term trend support and prior highs support. But it appears that it was a false breakdown and is trying to push back into rally mode. It still has some work to do as it needs to trade back above 45 to take out the prior lower high. I think it may take a rest at these levels after running pretty hard to get back what it had lost. I have drawn a possible bullish outcome here if it can consolidate a bit it would setup for a reversal inverse head/shoulder pattern and get ready to break higher. I will be watching this closely in the coming weeks to see how it handles this resistance.
DDD
Here is the daily look at DDD. After trading above and below its triangle formation, the pattern has made more of a flag type range now. For short term trades, you can take a position right against these lows and the rising 20/50 DMA's. For the longer setup to trigger I would need to see a sustained break above 49 creating a higher high. With a break above 49 the new stop would be just below the breakout resistance and low set here at 47. That is the risk/reward situation I would like to setup from here. If we bought for the longer term time frame right here, our stop would still have to be the low near 42. I do think this trades higher, but the market doesn't care what I think and I need to let the price prove itself before I take a longer term setup at these levels. This chart is all kinds of bullish though; a big cup/handle is being formed and a break above that $49 level would set this into motion. The trend is up seems to want to power ahead.
As of the close Friday our Portfolio currently holds 12 open positions:
XLF, XLY, XLK, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLV
HAIN, F, WFC, PBW, HD
Cash:
XLB, XLU
DDD, ENB, AAPL, CMI, MOS
While we added one position this week, it looks as though some of our cash positions are very near entry points. With AAPL's earnings this week and the close tests that DDD, ENB, CMI, and XLU are up against, next week could prove to be an active one for our portfolio.
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